杰艾智库丨失踪的劳动力
近期，世界就业联合会（WEC）公布了其最新的战略研究项目“The Work We Want”的成果。该项目是WEC携手FT Longitude，以及招聘和雇佣行业的主要商业领袖合作进行的，而我们杰艾控股就是项目组的重要成员之一。该项目成果分为三个篇章，以下是第二篇章的第一篇推文，杰艾控股持续翻译转载，与大家一起分享探讨。
The Missing Workforce
失踪的劳动力
The workplace is being transformed by new technologies – but economies around the world also face intense demographic pressures and changing expectations about work, which are resulting in talent shortages. How can we fill the gap of the missing workforce?
新技术正在改变职场，但世界各地的经济体也面临着巨大的人口压力和对工作期望的变化，这导致了人才短缺。我们如何填补劳动力缺口？
The world of work is passing through an era of dramatic change. Technology – in particular AI – is disrupting the ways in which organisations operate.
职场正在经历巨变的时代。技术——尤其是人工智能——正在扰乱组织的运作方式。
But technology is not the only driver of change regarding the employee-employer relationship. Endemic unpredictability and weak economic growth across the globe are destabilising for business, creating negative conditions for hiring new recruits and or even keeping existing talent. As well as significant changes to the conditions of work, the profile of the workforce is undergoing a seismic shift. This is because many regions face a very human challenge: a shortage of available talent in the labour market.
但技术并不是改变劳资关系的唯一驱动力。全球普遍存在的不可预测性和疲软的经济增长正在破坏企业的稳定，这不利于招聘新员工甚至保留住现有人才。除了工作条件的重大变化外，劳动力现状也在发生着翻天覆地的变化。许多地区面临着一个非常人性化的挑战：劳动力市场上现有人才面临短缺。
These shortages are affecting major economies around the world:
而这些短缺正在影响着世界各地的主要经济体：
- Analysis by theS. Chamber of Commerce finds that, if every unemployed person in the U.S. found a job today, there would still be 3 million open vacancies.
- 美国商会分析发现，如果今天美国每个失业者都能找到工作，那么仍有300万个职位空缺。
- Japan is expected to be short of 11 million workers by 2040.
- 预计到2040年，日本将缺少1100万工人。
- China faces an annual labour force gap of around 11.8 million, according to analysis by the World Economic Forum.
- 根据世界经济论坛的分析，中国每年面临约1180万的劳动力缺口。
- In Europe, “persistent labour shortages are found in a diverse range of sectors and occupations across all skill levels,” according to a recent report – and “shortages in both high- and low-skilled occupations are projected to increase considerably”.
- 根据最新报告，在欧洲，“所有技能水平的不同部门和职业都存在持续的劳动力短缺现象”，而且“高技能和低技能职业的劳动力短缺预计将大幅增加”。
- Consultancy Korn Ferry has warned of a global talent shortage of 85.2 million people by 2030. Of 20 leading economies analysed, India is the only one that can expect a talent surplus by 2030.
- 咨询公司光辉国际警告称，到2030年，全球人才短缺将达到8520万人。在分析的20个主要经济体中，印度是唯一一个有望在2030年实现人才过剩的国家。
- The financial impact could amount to $8.452 trillion in unrealised revenue, equivalent to the combined GDP of Germany and Japan. In business and financial services alone, in the US, the lost opportunity could be equivalent to 1.5% of the projected 2030 economy.
- 对财务影响是，未实现收入可能达到8.452万亿美元，相当于德国和日本的GDP总和。仅在美国商业和金融服务领域，失去的机会就预计相当于2030年经济的1.5%。
Some of the reasons for this issue are demographic; the result of a retirement wave sweeping through ageing societies, for example. Increased labour mobility creates opportunities for some regions and industries, and complications for others.
造成这一问题的部分原因是人口特征，例如：退休浪潮席卷老龄化社会的结果。另外，劳动力流动性的增加为一些地区和行业创造了机会，也为其他地区和行业带来了复杂性。
The effects of these trends have been compounded by major shifts relating to people’s attitude towards work. Since 2020 and the Covid crisis, many people have re-evaluated the role of work in their live. They have sought increased autonomy and control in their professional activities: the Great Resignation or Great Attrition have illustrated workers’ willingness to work differently, rejecting traditional deals from their employers.
人们对工作态度的大转变也加剧了这些趋势的影响。自2020年和新冠肺炎危机以来，许多人重新评估了工作在生活中的作用。他们在工作中寻求更多的自主权和控制权：大辞职或大损耗（也被称作大离职（Big Quit）或者大改组（Great Reshuffle），具体是指从2021年年初开始，面对不断上涨的生活成本、停滞不前的薪酬收入、持续流行的新冠疫情以及长期累积的工作不满，大批美国上班族自愿集体请辞的群体社会行为）表明了员工想要以不同的方式工作，拒绝雇主的传统雇佣模式。
“The pandemic highlighted workers’ desire for non-traditional forms of work, whether it’s flexible work, work from home, working remotely while you’re travelling the globe – all those things that became normal,” says Barry Asin, chief analyst at global staffing and workforce solutions research and advisory firm Staffing Industry Analysts (SIA). “Meanwhile, companies continue to struggle to get the labour they need. Typically, CEOs are now reporting that getting the right talent is one of their top three challenges.”
“疫情凸显了员工对非传统工作形式的渴望，无论是弹性办公、居家办公还是在环球远程办公，所有这些都变得正常了。”全球知名人力资源和职场解决方案研究咨询机构SIA的首席分析师Barry Asin表示，“与此同时，公司仍在为获得所需的劳动力而努力。典型的情况就是，首席执行官们正在汇报说，获得合适的人才是他们面临的三大挑战之一。”
Agility is now non-negotiable
扩大人才库
One way that employers can help redress the imbalance between labour market demand and supply is to invest effort in actively expanding the available pools of talent.
雇主可以提供的协调劳动力市场供求失衡的方法之一，是投入精力积极扩大现有人才库。
Our global survey of 715 senior executives reveals that the most common strategy for doing this is targeting and supporting talent from underemployed sectors of the workforce: such as long term unemployed, disabled persons, individuals with criminal records, and people from ethnic minorities.
我们对715名高管进行的一个全球调查显示，最常见的策略是针对和支持劳动力中就业不足领域的人才：如长期失业者、残疾人、有犯罪记录的个人和少数族裔群体。
Integrating people with disabilities and health issues (Switzerland)
残障人士和健全人士的融合（瑞士）
After a long period of unemployment, Beat D. (61) was yearning to get the position of salesman in spare parts management at an industrial company that he applied for. "The HR manager wanted to hire me, but the company deemed the risk too uncertain due to my Parkinson's disease." Eager to integrate qualified professionals regardless of their disabilities, the HR manager reached out to Stiftung Profil, an organisation which supports people with disabilities or health issues in integrating into the general job market and advises companies on inclusion.
经过长时间的失业，Beat D.（61岁）渴望在他申请的一家工业公司获得备件管理的销售员职位。“人力资源经理想雇佣我，但由于我患有帕金森氏症，所以公司认为风险太不确定。”这位人力资源经理渴望融入合格的专业人士，无论他们是否残疾，于是他联系了Stiftung Profil，一家为残疾或健康问题人士融入一般就业市场并为公司提供包容建议的组织。
Thanks to Stiftung Profil, Beat could benefit from a job coach, helping him and the company to settle into his role. He has increased his working hours from initially 50% to 80%, aiming for 100%, and he wants to continue working for several more years, even beyond retirement age! "I sometimes walk unevenly down the hallway, but otherwise, I have no limitations. My work is mental, and that works fine."
多亏了Stiftung Profil，这让Beat从工作辅导中受益，并帮助他和公司适应他的角色。他已经将工作时间从最初的50%增加到80%，目标是100%，他想再多工作几年，甚至超过退休年龄！“我有时在走廊上走得不自然，但除此之外，什么都没有限制住我。我是脑力劳动者，并做得很好。”
His advisor at Stiftung Profil continues to be a crucial point of contact. "I hope that such institutions become better known in companies' HR departments. This would give more people with disabilities the opportunity to be employed." After two years, between 60 and 70 percent of the individuals placed by Stiftung Profil are still in the same job.
他在Stiftung Profil的顾问是一个关键的联系点。“我希望这样的机构更能被企业的人力资源部门知晓。这将给更多残障人士就业的机会。”两年后，Stiftung Profil所安置的60%至70%的人仍做着同一份工作。
Organisations like Stiftung Profil not only serves the recruitment needs of companies, enabling them to look into untapped talent pools. They also help manage some of the risks such as increased sickness benefits premiums which deter companies from hiring people with disabilities. When employment goes through a staffing company, the employees are insured for sickness benefits through the collective labour agreement for the agency work sector.
像Stiftung Profil这样的组织不仅满足了公司的招聘需求，使他们能够挖掘尚未开发的人才库，还协助企业的风险管理，如疾病福利费的增加等，这些阻碍了公司雇佣残障人士的因素。当员工通过人力外包公司就业时，可以由外包公司的集体劳动协议获得疾病福利保险。
Moving past dead ends to open roads (USA)
越过死胡同，开辟新道路（美国）
Staffing gave Lisa Goodrich the second chance she needed in her career. As a formerly justice-involved individual, Goodrich was concerned she could never get a chance to move past a dead-end job that didn’t support her financially and kept her away from her husband for long periods. Then she found Working Fields. The staffing agency not only placed her with a local cable manufacturing company but also provided her with a peer coach who met with her weekly to develop her budgeting skills and support her recovery from substance use. Soon, she had the resources to purchase a vehicle and get the necessary medical treatment she’d been postponing. Based on her hard work and dedication, Goodrich earned a full-time position with the manufacturing company where she worked.
人力外包给了Lisa Goodrich职业生涯所需的第二次机会。作为一个以前触犯过法律的个人，她在很长一段时间里都担心自己也许永远都得不到一份可以安稳牢靠做到退休的工作了，这让她没有经济支持，也无法摆脱丈夫。但是她找到了Working Fields。这家人力外包机构不仅为她安排了当地一家电缆制造公司，还为她提供了一位每周与她会面的同事教练，以培养她的预算技能，并帮助她从药物滥用中康复。很快，她就能购买一辆车，并得到她一直推迟的必要医疗。基于她的辛勤工作和奉献精神，Goodrich在她工作的制造公司获得了一个全职职位。
Another strategy is to make recruitment practices more efficient, whether by making the application process more accessible (identified by 47% of companies), using new recruitment platforms to access untapped talent (33%) or reducing formal education requirements when hiring.
另一个策略是，提高招聘实践的效率，包括通过提高申请流程的可访问性（47%的公司认同）、使用新的招聘平台获取未开发的人才（33%）以及在招聘时降低对正规教育要求。
Finding real-world talent in the virtual world (The Netherlands)
在虚拟世界中寻找现实世界的人才（荷兰）
Many institutions predict that labour market shortages and mismatches of available workers will only increase in the coming years. One recommended solution is to promote learning behaviours within the workforce; however, it often faces challenges associated with low engagement. Fortunately, employers can overcome these challenges by making the invisible visible. Globally, approximately 2.8 billion people engage in daily gaming. Interestingly, research from Randstad indicates that gaming contributes to the development of essential skills for real-world occupations. Recognising the gamer audience as a talent source enables employers to fulfil staffing needs based on individuals’ hobbies while providing benefits for employer branding. The Randstad "career mode" video on this can be found on YouTube.
许多机构预测，未来几年劳动力市场的短缺和可用工人的不匹配情况只会加剧。一个推荐的解决方案是推进劳动力群体中的学习行为；然而，它经常面临与低参与度相关的挑战。幸运的是，雇主可以通过让无形变可见等措施来克服。全球约有28亿人参与日常游戏。有趣的是，任仕达的研究表明，游戏有助于培养现实职业的基本技能。将玩家受众视为人才来源，这使雇主能够根据个人爱好来满足员工需求，同时为雇主品牌带来好处。任仕达的“职业模式”视频可以在油管上找到。
Half of organisations want to source workers from under-employed groups to expand their pool of talent within the next two years
将近半数的组织希望从就业不足的群体中招聘员工，以在未来两年内扩大人才库
The third-ranked strategy is to offer specialist support to refugees and asylum seekers, many of whom are frozen out of the labour market when they arrive in a new country, disadvantaged by employment gaps in their CVs, language barriers or a lack of experience in the new market. Even when settled status is achieved – which can take years – these workers often find it hard to re-enter work.
排在第三的策略是，为难民和寻求庇护者提供专业支持，他们中的许多人在抵达新国家时，由于简历中的就业差距、语言障碍或缺乏新市场经验而处于不利地位，因此被排除在劳动力市场之外。即使拥有了稳定的身份——这可能需要数年时间——这些劳动力也很难重新获得工作岗位。
“Worldwide, countries can do more to give asylum and refugee workers a formal role in the economy,” says Luc Triangle, general secretary at the International Trade Union Confederation (ITUC). “They could be integrated much better into society through a formal employment in the labour market.”
“在全球范围内，各国都可以想更多办法，让庇护和难民工人在经济中发挥正式作用。”国际工会联合会（ITUC）秘书长Luc Triangle表示，“通过在劳动力市场的正式就业，他们可以更好地融入社会。”
Our survey respondents agree: 80% say that governments must reduce legal barriers to hiring refugees or asylum seekers. As organisations are recognising, these groups can be a valuable source of talent.
我们的调查受访者中也有80%的人表示同意，认为政府必须减少在雇用难民或寻求庇护者法律上的障碍。正如各组织所认识到的那样，这些群体可以成为宝贵的人才来源。
While the integration of asylum seekers and refugees is essential in the current geopolitical context, facilitating well-managed work mobility is equally important to meet economic and workers’ needs. Indeed, survey respondents clearly recognise the importance of labour mobility. In the context of the labour market gaps they face, migration can play an important role in increasing the talent pools available to employers. Eighty-one percent of respondents say that increased labour migration has allowed their organisation to access talent with different and/or higher levels of skills, while 78% say that if they did not hire workers from abroad, they would not be able to fill vital skills gaps at their organisations.
尽管寻求庇护者和难民的融合在当前地缘政治背景下至关重要，但促进管理良好的工作流动对于满足经济和员工的需求同样重要。事实上，调查对象清楚地认识到劳动力流动的重要性。在面临劳动力市场短缺的背景下，移民在增加雇主可用人才库方面上发挥了重要作用。81%的受访者表示，劳动力迁移的增加使组织能够接触到具有不同和/或更高技能水平的人才；甚至78%的人表示，如果他们不从国外雇佣工人，他们将无法填补组织的重要技能缺口。
Building more inclusive workplaces
建设更具包容性的职场
To attract and retain under-employed worker groups and workers from other countries, businesses will need to offer more flexible working arrangements and varied opportunities. For example, flexible or reduced working hours are often sought by senior specialists who no longer wish to work full-time. But beyond increasing availability of those arrangements, businesses also need to build more inclusive cultures that allow everyone to feel comfortable and thrive as a consequence.
为了吸引和留住就业不足的劳动力群体和他国劳动力，企业需要提供更灵活的工作安排和各种机会。例如，不再希望全职工作的资深专家经常寻求灵活办公或缩短工作时间。但除了增加这些安排的可用性外，企业还需要建立更具包容性的文化，让每个人都感到舒适并因此让企业得以蓬勃发展。
We found that most executives regard their organisation as being committed to inclusion.
我们发现，大多数高管认为他们的组织正致力于包容性建设。
Most organisations are committed to challenging discrimination, wherever it occurs
大多数组织都致力于反对歧视，无论歧视发生在哪里
It is certainly positive to see that the vast majority are committed to challenging discrimination and have put in place clear processes to report problems, although there is further progress to be made. Six percent disagree that their organisation is committed to challenging discrimination, and 5% disagree that their organisation has a strategy that specifically supports diversity, equity and inclusion in its workforce.
可以发现，绝大多数人在致力于反对歧视，并制定了明确的报告问题的流程，这当然是非常正面的，尽管还有待进一步的发展。另外还有6%的人不认为他们所在的组织致力于反对歧视，5%的人不认为他们所在的组织有专门支持员工多样性、公平性和包容性的战略。
The skills to succeed
成功的技能
As well as building a supportive environment, equipping every worker with the skills they need to succeed is crucial to attracting and retaining talent.
除了建立一个支持性的环境外，为每个员工提供成功所需的技能，对于吸引和留住人才也至关重要。
That includes reskilling people who may have become disillusioned with their first career to help them re-enter the workforce, as well as helping older workers to become more comfortable with new technologies. Senior executives are aware of the pressure that constant tech evolution adds to their training programs: 78% worry they will not be able to train employees sufficiently to keep up with technology developments in the next three years.
其中包括重新培训那些可能对自己第一份职业感到失望的人，帮助他们重新进入劳动力市场，以及帮助老年劳动力对更好地适应新技术。高管们意识到技术的不断发展给他们的培训计划增加了压力：78%的人担心他们无法对员工进行足够的培训，从而无法跟上未来三年的技术发展。
Nevertheless, the companies that face this challenge head-on and invest in their upskilling strategies now will reap the benefits in building a reliable and dynamic talent pool.
尽管如此，那些正面面对这一挑战并投资于提升技能战略的公司，都将在建立可靠并充满活力的人才库中获益。
The need for a more flexible workplace
需要更灵活的职场
As we explored in Chapter 1, the vast majority of executives – 92% – recognise that they will have to create a more flexible workforce that can adapt to rapid shifts in the level and nature of work within the next two years.
正如我们在第一个篇章中所探讨的，绝大多数高管（92%）都认识到，他们必须创造一支更具灵活性的劳动力队伍，才能适应未来两年内工作水平和性质的快速变化。
While flexibility is a strategic imperative for businesses, it is also in demand among workers. Eighty-three percent of senior executives say that, following the pandemic, employees place as much value on having flexibility around where and when they work, as they do on other factors such as compensation.
虽然灵活性对企业来说是战略上的当务之急，但它也是员工的需求。83%的高管表示，在疫情之后，员工对工作地点以及时间的灵活性，和对薪酬等其他因素的重视程度一样高了。
Attitudes to working conditions, the workplace, and how workers engage with their employers have all changed. Understanding this generational shift in expectations is crucial for employers to successfully attract and retain skilled personnel. It is the key to reaching untapped parts of the talent pool and building a more diverse, inclusive workplace.
人们对工作条件、工作场所以及员工与雇主互动的态度都发生了变化。理解这一代人期望的转变对于雇主成功吸引和留住技术人才至关重要。这是触及人才库中未开发部分并建立一个更多元化、更具包容性的职场的关键。
Johnny C. Taylor, Jr., president and CEO at SHRM has noted leaders’ perspectives changing. “Historically, employers wanted dedicated employees on their payroll for a significant period of time. Now, CEOs are increasingly comfortable with a bigger percentage of their workforce being on flexible contracts. It’s good for the employees, who want that flexibility and who don’t need the stability of a permanent role, and good for the companies, because it allows them to ramp up and down quickly.”
“领导者的观点正在发生变化。”SHRM总裁兼首席执行官Johnny C.Taylor Jr. 指出，“从历史上看，雇主在很长一段时期内都希望他们的工资是发给专属员工的。而现在，首席执行官们越来越适应更大比例员工签订灵活合同。这对员工有好处，有些人就想要这种灵活性，不需要长期职位的稳定性；这对公司也有好处，因为可以让他们快速增减人员。”
Flexible employment can also open the door to permanent employment, if that suits both parties, adds Taylor. “Companies are saying, ‘I’ll put you on a contract at the end of it, or I can let you go, or I can extend it – and you can decide if you’re going to remain with me.’”
“如果双方都适合的话，灵活就业也可以为永久就业打开大门。”Taylor补充道，“公司表示，‘我会在合同结束时再给你一份合同，也可能直接让你走，或者延长合同——你可以自己决定是否留在我们公司。’”
Not all roads lead to permanent roles, and nor should they – but a truly flexible approach represents a win-win for both sides of the employment relationship.
并非所有道路都能走向永久职位，本也不应该如此——但真正灵活的方法代表着就业关系双方的双赢。
Offering opportunity through agency contracts
通过代理合同提供机会
Extending the use of agency work contracts is also providing better options for under-employed groups.
扩大代理工作合同的使用范围，也为就业不足的群体提供了更好的选择。
“There’s an opportunity to use contingent talent or independent workers to make your workforce more diverse,” confirms Dr Anna Gurun, associate director at UK research institute HSM Advisory. “It’s often about women who’ve had children who don’t want to return to full-time work in the same way, but have the experience that organisations need,” she explains. “They could be brought in on a contract to do a certain number of hours across the year, but they have flexibility in deciding how to do that – maybe more during term time and not as much during the holidays.”
“雇佣临时工或独立员工，有机会使您的员工队伍更加多样化。”英国研究机构HSM Advisory的副主任Anna Gurun博士证实，“这通常是关于那些有孩子的女性，她们不想以同样的方式重返全职工作，但拥有组织所需的工作经验。”她解释道，“她们可以签订在一年中工作一定时间的合同，但她们能够灵活决定如何做到这一点——相比较与学校放假期间，可能在孩子学期时间做得更多。”
Encouragingly, a majority of the executives we surveyed are already working to diversify their agency worker talent pools. A significant proportion of those working on these initiatives have implemented them by partnering with an HR services provider.
令人鼓舞的是，我们调查的大多数高管已经在努力使他们的组织员工人才库多样化。而很大一部分致力于这些举措的人，已经通过与人力资源服务供应商合作来实施这些举措了。
HR services providers are a key part of organisations’ strategies to diversify their agency worker talent pools
人力资源服务供应商是组织实现中介员工人才库多元化战略的关键组成部分
Demand for flexible work is also growing among older age groups. “I see a lot of older people who have specific skills and want to work as a freelancer or contractor”, says Gurun. They may have been full-time employees in the past, but want a new approach that does not require the commitment of a full-time role, while still allowing them to continue contributing and earning as they approach retirement. “That works for business because it gives them ongoing access to the experience and knowledge of those individuals”, says Gurun.
老年群体对弹性工作的需求也在增长。Gurun说：“我看到很多老年人有特定的技能，想成为自由职业者或承包人。”他们过去可能是全职员工，但现在需要一种全新方法，让他们不需要全职工作，同时仍然让他们可以在临近退休时继续贡献和赚钱。Gurun接着说：“这对企业来说也是蛮好的，因为这可以让企业能够不断地获得这些人的经验和知识。”
Engaging older individuals as agency workers also helps businesses provide advancement options for younger workers. “It allows businesses to improve their age diversity without blocking the pipeline”, explains Gurun. “It frees up some space for workers coming up the organisation, while maintaining access to those more experienced workers.”
让老年人以中介员工身份工作也有助于企业为年轻员工提供晋升选择。“这使企业能够在不堵塞晋升通道的前提下提高员工年龄的多样性。”Gurun解释道，“这种做法为想进入组织的员工腾出了一些空间，同时也保持了与更有经验员工的接触。”
Agility is now non-negotiable
多管齐下的解决方案
As employers around the world wrestle with major labour and skills shortages, it is becoming critical that they will pull every lever available to them in an effort to close the gaps. That means a multi-pronged approach: from the smart deployment of AI to enhance workers’ productivity, to redoubling investment in skills, to creating more inclusive work cultures, and building flexibility in working hours, location and contract type. Policymakers must also wake up to these shifts in worker preferences and ensure that the full opportunities of the modern labour market can be accessed by every part of society.
随着世界各地的雇主都在努力解决严重的劳动力和技能短缺问题，竭尽全力缩小差距变得至关重要。这意味着一种多管齐下的方法：从智能部署人工智能以提高工人的生产力，到加倍投资于技能，再到创造更具包容性的工作文化，以及在工作时间、地点和合同类型方面建立灵活性。政策制定者还必须意识到工人偏好的这些变化，并确保社会的每一组成部分都能充分利用现代劳动力市场的机会。
Next, we explore how that multi-pronged approach can help design and deliver the work life we want.
接下来，我们将探讨这种多管齐下的方法如何协助设计并提供我们想要的工作生活。下次分享见！
