杰艾智库丨人工智能时代的敏捷人才
近期，世界就业联合会（WEC）公布了其最新的战略研究项目“The Work We Want”的成果。该项目是WEC携手FT Longitude，以及招聘和雇佣行业的主要商业领袖合作进行的，而我们杰艾控股就是项目组的重要成员之一。该项目成果分为三个篇章，以下是第一篇章的首篇推文，杰艾控股特此翻译转载，与大家一起分享探讨。
Agile Talent in the Age of AI
人工智能时代的敏捷人才
The dramatic rise of generative AI is already transforming the workplace, but do employers have the people they need for what comes next?
生成型人工智能的快速兴起已经在改变职场，但雇主是否拥有下一阶段所需的人才？
“I don’t think AI’s likely impact on the workforce is fully appreciated. Generative AI is going to affect everyone in every industry. We’re seeing broad-based adoption that’s unlike any previous new technology.”
“我不认为人工智能可能对劳动力产生的影响得到了充分重视。生成型人工智能将影响到每个行业的每个人。我们可以看到其广泛的使用，这与以前的任何新技术都不同。”
These are the words of Johnny Taylor, president and CEO of the Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM), who is clear about just how dramatically AI will affect the way we work.
这来自人力资源管理学会（SHRM）主席兼首席执行官约翰尼·泰勒所述，他清楚地知道人工智能将对工作方式产生多大影响。
There’s little doubt that AI’s potential impact on how we work is enormous. And it’s increasingly clear that what PwC describes as an “age of continuous reinvention” isn’t just about business models and changes in strategic direction. It’s also about talent: technology is redefining the skills needed by workers at every level and in every sector.
毫无疑问，人工智能对工作方式的潜在影响是巨大的。越来越明显的是，普华永道所描述的“不断重塑的时代”不仅仅是商业模式和战略方向的变化，也是关乎人才的：技术正在重新定义每个级别和每个行业从业人员所需的技能。
The big skills rethink is starting
重要技能反思开始了
Industry research on perceptions of AI have shown a high level of optimism. Randstad finds that more than half of working people believe that AI will lead to career growth and promotion. The Adecco Group has likewise found that most workers are optimistic about AI in the workplace. But do they understand it? According to that report, “workers and organisations need a deeper understanding of [AI’s] potential” — including how it will affect their jobs.
行业对人工智能认知的研究展示出高度乐观。任仕达发现，超过一半的职场人认为人工智能将促进职业发展和晋升。德科集团同样发现，大多数员工对职场的人工智能持乐观态度。但他们真的能完全理解吗？根据报告显示，“员工和组织需要更深入地了解人工智能的潜力”，包括它将如何影响他们的工作。
For organisations, the skills they’ll need tomorrow are increasingly hard to predict. Already, they’re encountering big skills gaps in key areas, particularly in digital expertise. And as new technology continues to disrupt business models, our global survey of 715 senior executives finds that organisations are having to rethink every part of their talent strategies.
对于组织来说，今后所需的技能越来越难以预测，在关键领域已经遇到了巨大的技能差距，尤其是在数字专业知识方面。随着新技术不断颠覆商业模式，对715名高管进行的全球调查发现，所有组织都必须重新思考其人才战略的每一部分。
- 81% of senior executives believe that AI and other tech disruptions will force organisations to radically rethink skills and resources across large areas of the workforce.
- 81%的高管认为，人工智能和其他技术颠覆将迫使企业从根本上重新思考大量劳动力所含的技能和资源。
- 78% are concerned that their organisation can’t train employees fast enough to keep up with technology developments in the next three years.
- 78%的人则担心他们的组织无法快速培训员工，难以跟上未来三年的技术发展。
This could be disastrous. Organisations might find themselves with skills gaps that badly constrain their performance and limit their ability to adapt to the new digital era.
这可能是灾难性的。组织可能会发现自己存在技能差距，这将严重限制其绩效并限制其适应新数字时代的能力。
About our research
关于我们的研究
In November and December 2023 we surveyed 715 senior executives from around the world, including 680 from Forbes Global 2000 companies and 35 from public sector organisations.
2023年11月和12月，我们调查了来自世界各地的715名高管，其中680人来自《福布斯》全球2000强公司，35人来自公共部门机构。
We also interviewed senior business leaders and global experts in talent planning and the future of the workplace in order to hear their perspectives on the new world of work.
我们还采访了高级商业领袖和全球人才规划和未来职场专家，以听取他们对新工作世界的看法。
Agility is key.Talent planning is increasingly challenging. Agility is key.
人才规划越来越具有挑战性。敏捷是关键。
Senior executives say that digital transformation and workers’ desire for more flexible working practices are going to be the biggest challenges for talent planning over the next two years.
高管们表示，数字化转型和员工对更灵活工作方式的渴望将是未来两年人才规划面临的最大挑战。
But our research shows that they’re grappling with other issues, too: the scarcity of talent in the market, the so-called Great Resignation, talent migration and remote working, and workers’ increasing willingness to move roles.
但我们的研究表明，他们同时还在努力解决其他问题：包括市场上人才稀缺、所谓的大辞职、人才迁移和远程工作，以及员工对调岗的意愿等。
- 92% of senior executives say they’ll need a more flexible workforce in the next two years.
- 92%的高管表示，未来两年他们需要更灵活的员工队伍。
Faced by all these challenges, the vast majority of senior executives say they’ll need a more flexible workforce in the next two years. And it’s true that agile talent models should help them to meet some of workers’ most important expectations, but they’ll also be a crucial way for organisations to succeed when constant change is the norm.
面对所有这些挑战，绝大多数高管表示，未来两年他们需要一支更灵活的员工队伍。诚然，敏捷人才模型确实能够满足他们对员工的某些重要期望，但当不断变化成为常态时，这也将是组织成功的关键途径。
How to get the flex factor
如何获得灵活因子
Our survey shows us how organisations are adjusting their talent strategies to create more flexible workforces in the next two years.
调查显示了组织如何在未来两年调整人才战略，来创造更灵活的劳动力队伍。
The most popular tactic is sectoral talent pools. These lists of engaged candidates with relevant experience and skills might include previous contingent workers, former permanent employees, freelancers, retirees and even previous applicants.
最流行的策略是建立部门人才库。这些具有相关经验和技能的候选人名单可能包括曾经的合同工、曾经的长期就职员工、自由职业者、退休人员，甚至以前的申请人。
Organisations are clearly becoming more porous, with people moving in and out over time. And it benefits both sides: employers can bring in relevant skills and knowledge when they need them, and the workers can move between different organisations, learning as they go.
组织显然变得越来越多孔，随着时间的推移，员工随时进出。这对双方都有利：雇主可以在需要时引入相关的技能和知识，员工则可以在不同的组织之间流动，边走边学。
Measures such as these enhance ‘external flexibility’ – but 88% also report that they are seeking to build ‘internal flexibility,’ through measures such as secondments or rotations, while 87% are offering increased training opportunities. Both aspects of flexibility will be key for organisations to build true talent agility.
此类措施增强了‘外部灵活性’，但88%的受访者也表示，他们正在寻求通过借调或轮调等措施提高‘内部灵活性’，而87%的受访者则提供了更多的培训机会。灵活性的两个方面将是组织建立真正的人才灵活性的关键。
The rise of the agency worker
中介员工的崛起
- 88% of organisations plan to increase the employment of agency workers.
- 88%的组织计划增加中介员工数量。
The senior executives in our research tell us they’re turning to agency workers to realise multiple benefits. Top of the list is increasing their workforce agility and bridging unexpected resourcing gaps — vital benefits when businesses have to change direction at speed.
调查报告中高管们告诉我们，他们正在通过转向聘用中介人员来实现多重利益。首先就是提高员工敏捷性，弥合意外的资源缺口——当企业必须快速改变方向时，这是至关重要的好处。
But our survey shows that these workers aren’t seen as just an extra pair of hands. Other key benefits of using agencies include the ability to access digital skills that are difficult to hire on a permanent basis, and access to higher-calibre candidates – as well as helping to prepare for planned changes in resource requirements at particular times of year.
但同时调查显示，这些员工不仅仅被视为一双额外的手。使用中介的其他关键好处还包括能够获得难以在长期聘用的员工身上存在的数字技能，以及接触到更高素质的候选人——同时为一年中特定时间所需资源有计划地做好准备。
Agency workers drive knowledge growth
中介员工促使知识增长
“A whole new set of workers will be needed to do a lot of the data work around AI,” says Stijn Broecke, senior economist at the OECD. “AI needs to be trained, it needs to be validated, it needs to be checked. As we need more and more data, this is an area where we might need more workers, and I suspect that a lot of these will be flexible contingent workers.”
“未来将需要一批全新的工作者来围绕人工智能进行大量数据工作。”经合组织高级经济学家Stijn Broecke表示，“人工智能需要培训，需要验证，需要检查。随着我们需要越来越多的数据，这将是一个可能需要更多人工的领域，我猜想很多灵活的临时工将参与其中。”
Contingent or agency workers bring new skills and knowledge to an organisation, and the senior executives in our research seem to recognise this.
短期工或中介员工为组织带来了新的技能和知识，我们研究中的高级管理人员似乎也认识到了这一点。
- 79% of senior executives say employing agency workers with knowledge of a new technology is an effective way to spread understanding to permanent employees.
- 79%的高管表示，雇佣了解新技术的中介员工是向长期聘用员工传播新知识的有效途径。
“The exchange of knowledge goes both ways,” says Dr Anna Gurun, associate director at UK research institute HSM Advisory. “Part of the reason you see people with digital and tech skills working on contracts is that if you have tech skills, you learn by the projects you’re on — you learn by being around different people. That’s why digital workers often don’t stay in one organisation for a long time — because once the learning is done, they move on.”
“知识交流是双向的，”英国HSM Advisory研究所副主任Anna Gurun博士说，“你看到有数字和技术技能的人一起工作的部分原因是，如果你有技术技能，你可以通过正在进行的项目来学习——你也可以通过与不同的人相处来学习。这就是为什么数字工作者通常不会在一个组织中停留很长时间——因为一旦学成，他们就会继续前进。”
So shorter-term workers become learning vectors: their mobility helps to spread knowledge and enhance capabilities across the organisation — and across the economy at large.
因此，短期员工成为学习载体：他们的流动性有助于在整个组织以及整个经济中传播知识和增强能力。
AI predicts skills gaps…
人工智能预测技能差距…
“We predict that 51% of HR departments will be using AI by the beginning of 2025.”
“我们预测，到2025年初，51%的人力资源部门将使用人工智能。”
– Johnny Taylor, President & CEO, SHRM 约翰尼·泰勒，SHRM总裁兼首席执行官
The mobility of tech-savvy talent can help close skills gaps, but the scale of the gaps facing employers – driven in part by major demographic shifts that we explore further in Chapter 2 – mean that a range of solutions are needed. AI will be one of them. The strategic uncertainty that it creates might be making it harder to predict talent needs, but the technology can also transform how organisations analyse and anticipate skills gaps – and fill them.
精通技术的人才，他们的流动性有助于缩小技能差距，但雇主面临的差距规模——部分由重大人口变化所驱动（我们将在第二篇章中进一步探讨）——意味着需要一系列解决方案。人工智能将是其中之一。它所产生的战略不确定性可能使人才需求预测变得更加困难，但这项技术也可以改变组织分析和预测技能差距的方式，并填补这些差距。
“Companies are asking, ‘What are the job roles that we have in the organisation? What are the skills that sit in those roles?’,” says HSM Advisory’s Dr Anna Gurun. “Using AI to answer these questions allows organisations to redesign their talent strategies. You can start thinking about how you move talent around, so you’re led by the tasks that need to be done rather than by which employees you have.”
“公司都在问，‘我们在组织中的工作角色是什么？这些角色的技能是什么？’”HSM Advisory的Anna Gurun博士说，“使用人工智能来回答这些问题，可以让组织能够重新设计其人才战略。你可以开始考虑如何调动人才，这样你就可以由被需要完成的任务所引导，而不是员工。”
In this way, AI can complement the key role played by HR departments and recruiters in helping to design workforce strategies.
通过这种方式，人工智能可以补充人力资源部门和招聘人员在帮助设计劳动力战略方面发挥的关键作用。
In some cases, AI will also be deployed to directly help make up for talent shortages where employers have been finding it hard to recruit for key skills.
在某些情况下，人工智能也将被部署来直接帮助弥补人才短缺，因为雇主发现很难招聘到关键技能人士。
“It has probably come along at the perfect moment from the point of view of this looming demographic shortage of workers,” says Barry Asin, chief analyst at Staffing Industry Analysts. “Yes, AI will cause job losses. But it’s also going to be a solution to not having enough people to do the work — and it will make us more productive and able to grow and become wealthier as a society.”
“从这个迫在眉睫的人员短缺角度来看，现在可能出现了一个完美时刻，”SIA首席分析师Barry Asin说，“诚然，人工智能会导致失业，但它也将是一个解决没有足够的人来做这项工作的办法——它将使我们更有效率，从社会层面上来看也能推动成长，加速富裕。”
…And then closes them …
最后总结一下
“In some countries — Japan, Korea and Germany, for example — you have very rapidly ageing populations, and in others you have skills shortages for other reasons,” says the OECD’s Stijn Broecke. “The hope is that at least some of these skills shortages can be filled by AI.”
“在一些国家，例如日本、韩国和德国，人口老龄化速度非常快，而在其他国家，也由于其他原因导致了技能短缺，”经合组织的Stijn Broecke说，“希望人工智能至少能填补部分技能短缺。”
That doesn’t have to mean redundancies. “I’ve heard stories of companies where workers are retiring and the workers aren’t replaced,” says Broecke. “Because they transfer the expertise of the older worker to the AI instead.”
这并不一定意味着裁员。 “我听说过一些公司的故事，员工退休了但是这些岗位没被新人顶上。”Broecke说，“因为公司将资深员工的专业知识转移到人工智能上。”
Indeed, OECD research on the impact of AI in two key sectors, finance and manufacturing, found that 64% and 71% of employers in those industries retrained or upskilled existing workers as AI was rolled-out. That was many more than the number who reported job attrition or redundancies (17% and 14% respectively).
事实上，经合组织关于“人工智能对金融和制造这两个关键行业的影响”研究发现，随着人工智能的推出，这些行业中有64%和71%的雇主对现有工人进行了再培训或技能提高。这远远超过了报告中自然流失和裁员的人数（分别为17%和14%）。
And those numbers may increase over time – but in many cases, where employers opt not to employ new workers, the reality is that AI is providing a solution to the difficulties of filling roles in recent years. “Employers have had this realisation: ‘Instead of five people doing that work, I can get three people to do it, because the first draft can be done by ChatGPT’,” says SHRM’s Johnny Taylor. “The war for talent has meant that positions went unfilled. AI is a way to close that gap.”
这些数字可能会随着时间的推移而增加——但在许多情况下，当雇主选择不再雇佣新员工时，现实是人工智能正在为近年来填补职位空缺的困难提供解决方案。SHRM的Johnny Taylor说：“雇主们已经意识到，‘我可以让三个人来做这项工作，而不是五个人来做，因为初稿可以由ChatGPT完成’。人才争夺战意味着职位空缺。人工智能是缩小这一差距的方式之一。”
In many cases, AI will not necessarily ‘replace’ a human worker – research from Manpower shows 58% of empowers believe AI and Virtual Reality will be job creators. But it will serve as a hugely powerful aid to productivity. Increasingly, it is likely to be used as an element of a job, vastly speeding up previously time-consuming tasks and freeing people up to do more ‘human’ work. It could be the difference between spending time crunching the numbers for a monthly report – or spending it advising existing clients and generating new business.
在许多情况下，人工智能不一定能完全‘取代’真人——来自Manpower的研究显示，58%的受访者认为人工智能和虚拟现实将创造就业机会，它将成为生产力的强大助力，越来越可能被用作工作的一个元素，大大加速了以前耗时的任务，解放员工去做更多‘人味’的工作。 这可能是花时间计算每月报告的数字、还是花时间为现有客户提供咨询和创造新业务之间的区别。
That may be more value-adding for the organisation – and more engaging and rewarding for the personnel involved, too.
因此，这可能会给组织带来更多的价值，对相关人员来说也更具吸引力和回报。
Using AI ethically
道德地使用人工智能
Excitement about the potential benefits of AI have been offset by concerns about how it will be used – and the risks that it could replicate or worsen existing workplace biases.
人们对人工智能潜在好处的兴奋被对其使用方式的担忧所抵消——以及它可能复制或恶化现有工作场所偏见的风险。
The World Employment Confederation’s Code of Ethical Principles in the use of Artificial Intelligence sets out how employers can adopt AI responsibly. At its heart is the need for human-centric design: AI systems used in recruitment and employment should be beneficial for individuals and society as a whole.
世界就业联合会在使用人工智能方面的道德原则规范规定了雇主可以如何负责任地采用人工智能。其核心即以人为本: 招聘和就业中使用的人工智能系统应该对个人和整个社会都有好处。
The Principles on AI also embody those set out in the Confederation’s overall Code of Conduct, such as fairness, non-discrimination, diversity, inclusiveness and privacy. The notions that should guide HR services as a whole are as important as ever when it comes to ensuring that AI is deployed ethically.
这个原则规范还体现了联合会总体行为准则中规定的原则，例如公平、不歧视、多样性、包容性和隐私性。在确保人工智能以道德方式部署时，指导整个人力资源服务的理念一如既往地重要。
Agility is now non-negotiable
灵活性现在是不可谈判的
The unfolding digital and AI revolution has ripped up the talent strategy rulebooks. Talent agility is now essential: it allows organisations to adapt to the new world and redeploy workers into the roles of the future.
如火如荼的数字与人工智能革命撕毁了人才战略规则手册。人才灵活性现在至关重要：它使组织能够适应新世界，并将员工重新部署到未来的角色中。
Moreover, flexibility is expected and welcomed by many workers, helping them meet their lifestyle requirements and desire for work-life balance. Often, their views are aligned with employers’: both stand to benefit from the expansion of flexible models of work.
尤其是，灵活性受到了许多员工的期望和欢迎，帮助他们满足生活方式要求和对工作与生活平衡的渴望。通常，他们的观点与雇主一致：两者都将受益于灵活的工作模式的扩展。
Next, we explore how that flexibility also helps organisations to reach deeper into the talent pool and provide the opportunities that today’s workers want.
接下来，我们将探索这种灵活性如何帮助组织深入人才库，并提供当今员工想要的机会。让我们期待下一次的分享。
