The State of Work: 2026 Calls for Vision and Agility

A Look Ahead: What 2026 Holds for the Dutch Labor Market
Each month, we at Gi Group Holding Netherlands share our perspective on the developments within the Dutch labor market, with special attention to the staffing sector, where changes follow each other at a rapid pace.

In this edition, we look ahead to 2026: a year in which labor market tightness, new regulations, collective bargaining agreements, and the rise of AI will significantly shape the labor market. What do these trends mean for sectors like Production, Logistics, and Life Sciences? And how can organizations prepare for a labor market that is changing faster than ever?

1. Structural Tightness Remains the Norm

The Dutch labor market will remain one of the most dynamic in Europe in 2026. While the economy grows cautiously, tightness remains structural due to aging, high labor participation, and limited inflow. This means: adapt, look ahead, and invest in sustainable employability.

2. Macro-Economic Context: Inflation Stabilizes, Wages Continue to Rise

Although inflation will continue to normalize in 2025 and early 2026, wages will continue to rise significantly. Large collective bargaining agreements (CBAs) are seeing increases between 4% and 7%. For example, the TLN CBA allocates a 4% wage increase for all job groups, as well as raising shift premiums by a few percentage points.

The minimum wage will also rise by 2.15% due to the introduction of the hourly minimum wage. The increase is relatively modest compared to some other EU countries, where minimum wages have increased by 5-12% per year in recent years due to inflation corrections and catch-ups in Eastern Europe. In absolute terms, the Netherlands remains in the top 5 of the highest paid minimum wages.

3. New Staffing Collective Agreement as of January 1, 2026

The new staffing CBA makes flexible work in the Netherlands more expensive and complex, but also fairer. Internationally, this further positions the Netherlands as a high-cost country, though strong labor productivity remains an important reason that companies continue to invest here. Key changes include:

• Shorter phases A and B

• Higher wage scaling

• Improved pension build-up

• Stricter rules for flexible deployment

4. Government Initiatives: More Regulation of Flex

The government is steering the flexible labor market toward more certainty, higher quality, and less wild growth. For employers, this means higher costs and more administrative obligations. For employees, it means more protection and clarity.
The market shows that flexible work will remain structurally embedded in the economy. Flexible labor remains essential for many organizations. Consider: seasonal peaks in logistics, production, and e-commerce, unpredictable demand in sectors like Life Sciences and food, and the tight labor market, which forces companies to scale up quickly.

Government initiatives:

• Mandatory certification for staffing agencies

• Tackling pseudo-self-employment

• Rules for platform work

• Restrictions on revolving door constructions

5. AI in 2026: What Are We Really Seeing?

AI: you can’t avoid it, but looking past the hype, the impact in 2026 is surprisingly low: on the work floor, employees will notice little of AI. It hasn’t replaced jobs yet; it mainly automates small, repetitive tasks, and work processes change slowly.

However, this is no reason to relax. Quite the opposite. Over $2 trillion will be invested in AI technology worldwide in 2026. The transformation will come after 2026, when AI applications mature and become widely deployed. Roles will shift from performing tasks to controlling and analyzing, and companies that embrace AI will become more productive and efficient.